While there has been much debate over global warming, the overall consensus in the scientific community is that in the overwhelming evidence points to increasing amounts of greenhouse gases from human activities increasing global mean temperature by a couple of degrees centigrade over the last century. But what does that mean for us? With all of the snow and cold temperatures in the northeast over the past week, I have heard some people quoted as saying "What is this global cooling?"

In order to understand the effects of global warming, you have to take into account that our weather is a giant thermodynamic system that distributes heat from the sun throughout the planet. Global warming simply adds energy to this system, and the net effect is to increase variability of the weather. So what we can expect with global warming is not necessarily just warmer temperatures, but more unpredictable weather which might in fact lead to hotter heat waves in the summer, followed by major winter storms and intense cold spells in the winter, or 80 degree days in the middle of winter. Case in point. Yesterday morning it was in the low 40s, and I wore a 5/3 wetsuit on a downwinder and was quite comfortable. This morning it is 65 degrees with a forecast high of 80 degrees tomorrow here in St. Augustine!

So when you think about global warming, remember that it is only an increase in the average temperature. The effect is that we will see more changeable weather. Keep this in mind this winter and I think you will see that it is true. One major effect of this for our purposes is that long-range weather models are pretty much fantasy. I look at models that pretend to forecast 10 days in advance. But if you take the 5, 7 or 10 day forecast and overlay it with the actual now cast for any day this winter, I bet 5% of them will actually look remotely similar. That is because long-range models are based on climatology, which means an average of what the weather has done in the past on this date in this type of winter pattern. But the weather is changing, which means that there is no pattern similar to this in the past. We are in new territory, and time will tell where it will take us, but one thing is for sure - the weather will not be boring.

Global warming is a FRAUD! Research Climate Gate. They are trying to pass the Copenhagen treaty. Resist Cap and trade. I wouldn't call 31,000+ scientist trying to sue Al Gore and overall consensus that temperatures are increasing.

http://www.oism.org/pproject/

I disagree that Global Warming is a hoax. Sure, it appeals to our skeptical nature to want to believe that there is some sort of conspiracy cooked up by special interests in order to sell more hybrids or whatever, but there is plenty of verifiable scientific evidence to support global climate change. Here is an interesting article on the subject:
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/op ... 57240.html

Anyone else want to chime in on the subject?

I do not disagree that some of the proposals for dealing with climate change are too expensive and should be thrown out. But you cannot simply discount all of the evidence just because a few letters came out that some scientists were trying to exaggerate the situation by throwing out research that is contrary to their findings. The scientific method is all about testing a hypothesis, and to be done properly, you must be open to the possibility that your hypothesis is not correct. Otherwise you will be looking for evidence to support your hypothesis instead of designing experiments to test if the hypothesis is true or not. Often times evidence gathered in experiments simply changes the hypothesis to something else that you had not even thought of before.

The global weather on the planet Earth is a very complex system that we do not have the computing power to model properly yet on a reasonable time scale. Basically by the time the model was complete with the available programming speeds in the world's fastest super computers, the weather would have already happened. Eventually maybe we will understand it better, but for now a 1-3 day forecast is about as good as it gets, and even then maybe 50-50. As for forecasting the weather 50 years from now? Good luck.

After reading the paper on the link about Global Warming being a hoax, it does not say that the earth is not getting warmer. It shows that the temperature is linked to solar activity, and not human activities. Which is fine, but my first post is still valid, that as temperature increases, so does variability in weather! Whether you want to drive a hybrid, use less electricity, travel closer to home instead of jetsetting across the planet to decrease your carbon footprint is a personal decision. Regardless of whether it increases global temperature, I believe it is a good idea to conserve since there is only so much energy available, and we all have to share. With ever increasing population on the planet, and limited resources, it just makes sense as a responsible human being.

I respect Jonathan's opinion as well. There are 2 sides to every argument, and the truth usually lies somewhere in the middle.

Your wetsuit shipped middle of last week, so I guess the Christmas mail system is going SLOW. You should see it today, and we are tracking it now to make sure. OK, tracking says it was delivered this morning. I actually surfed yesterday afternoon here in a long sleeve 1.5 mm top and was perfect! Helps when it is 83 degrees out.

The planet goes through cycles with or without us. When this happens animals die out and bad things happen but we never worried about it til now. Yea we definitely fucked a few things up but don't worry its nothing that this rock can't handle. The fact we think we can really change something is bullshit. I'm not staying we should pollute and not try to keep the place clean but seriously this is being pushed by politicians and media more than anyone else because there is profit to be made. Just because we've been measuring temps and other data for 100 years (a drop in the bucket when compared to the timescale of the planet) doesn't mean we can fully understand whats going on.

Humans are full of crap for the most part and way more worried about what other people think of them rather than the real impact of their actions. If you want to buy into this go ahead. Its not going to hurt if you do but there is definitely more to the whole story than is being told.

Just a bit of perspective I guess,
Toast

P.S.
-Why do you need that wetsuit if theres global warming

Maybe we should talk about something less political / controversial????

What is everyone's thought on abortion, religion, and if we really did land on the moon?

...but the sky is falling!!!!!!!

"The truth is out there".

I think that it is very likely that global warming is a real phenomena with profound effects for change across our planet. I also believe that there is probably a mixture of natural and human factors at work.
But, Its hard for people to think globally. We live our lives and go about our daily routine and the things we see every day are what we judge,"feel" to be factual in our world. Its easy to say wow its cold (or warm) to day, this week this month or this winter. Observing the immediate environment around us is the best way most of us have to draw conclusions about the world as a whole. But most people are curious by nature. If they choose to be curious about the world beyond their local area they have two options. One is to go and see for them selves and the other is to listen to the accounts of others. Most of us cant travel to Mount Kilimanjaro, the rain forests of South America, the glacier fields of the polar regions, the desert areas of coastal Africa or small island nations around the world. We rely on TV and the news industry to supply this information.
But people still tend to look at these accounts and information through a filter of how they see their local environment. So if you are suspicious by nature then you will probably see the information as false. Well known idioms such as "I am from Missouri, show me" or "believe none of what you hear and only half of what you see" frame how many people see the world. They may tend to discount the local effects of global warming because those effects may not be very noticeable today or even for the next 20 or even 100 years. Conspiracy theorists, the ones who still brood on the Kennedy Assignation, the Order of the Skull and the Illuminate run outside information through the filter of skepticism. Their built in crap detectors are are running on high.
Then you have the other extreme. Those people who are willing to accept the views of others with little or no question. The media exploits these people. That is how they make money. Terrorist organizations such as AL-Qaeda thrive on this this type of blind following. Many of our own politicians who are adept at spin are also susceptible to this type of influence. Those of us who rise up and become leaders for improvement and change can fall victim to the ceaseless bombardment of twisted information.
Now you may be wondering what difference this will make in your daily lives. I will give you a local example of how a global issue is affecting us here.
Many of you have been following the recent events that have brought about reduced access to our beaches. The spin local and national environmental groups apply to this information is not focused at you so much as its focused at our local leadership. How many of our respected politicians have degrees in climatology, biology, ornithology or oceanography? How many have the time to pore through the huge volumes of data from all over the world while they attend to other matters of state and run their own political careers? My guess is not many. So we have a dedicated group of decision, policy and law makers who essentially are at the mercy of anyone who has the time or the money to lobby. The National Audubon Society tax returns indicate that it generated about 80 million dollars last year. 77% of those funds came from private individuals or corporate sponsors. I guess that kind of money could turn any research scientist into a paid lobbyist. Hell, I guess most of us have a price. But money and truth don't follow hand in hand.
So there you have opportunity and motive. Lets take one specific item and break it apart and expose the truth.
There is no denying that Red knots are disappearing from the Eastern coasts of North and South America. Most independent studies indicate that these birds dropped in numbers from almost one million birds a few years ago to only about ten thousand today. See what I just did there? I refereed to a statistic that required a certain amount of faith in the scientific research of other people. Who are they and how qualified are they? Do we know in fact that they actually did reasonable research? Well we do have to accept some things or we will eventually begin to question our own reality. So lets say that the stat is true. Hey it was on PBS and the Cornell University is a pretty respected institution. The US Fish and Wildlife Service is supposed to be unbiased. They say its true. Out of context the information could mean anything though. The local environmental lobby told us these birds fly from the tip of Argentina to North florida (specifically Huguenot Park) and from there to the arctic breading grounds. They also said the Red Knot was disappearing because of loss of feeding grounds along that long migration. But because it does not serve the interest of their local agenda they left out important facts when they talked to our elected and appointed officials. Facts that were established by their own and other independent researchers. If you take the time you can find the data on web pages from all sorts of sources. The information has already been exposed on this and other forums and in e-mails to local officials. That doesn't mean that you don't need to pass it on. the Red Knot was the topic on one of the PBS programs this summer. Featured researchers demonstrated how the life cycle of the Red Knot on the Eastern Seaboard is closely tied to another animal, the horseshoe crab. They also showed how the species is tied to a specific location and a time frame dictated by seasons weather and tides. Overfishing of the crabs has almost deleted the food source these birds need to have to arrive in time with enough body fat to produce young in the arctic. What the local lobby does not tell you is that the crab eggs the birds feed on are all located in one small area of the east coast, specifically in and around Delaware Bay. They also leave out the fact that Early melting of arctic snows results in a reduced supply of available food sources while the birds are there. They "forgot" to mention that one chemical spill resulted in the deaths of an estimated 1500 birds in South America. And in some places the bird is apparently still hunted as a game bird. Among their own journals they are aware of these facts but it doesn't serve the interest of the local bird lobby so they leave them out. The most recent estimates give THIS population of Konts* about one year to final extinction. That is too bad. I believe the permeant loss of any species (or subspecies) diminishes us all. Unfortunately the truth is that locally there is nothing we can do to counteract or reverse this loss. It is also true that locally we are not responsible for the conditions that have brought about the demise of this species. However, to hear the BS from the BL we are somehow in control the last refuge and key to its survival.
In short we should all do our due diligence and accept nothing at face value. Then make sure that your local decision maker is informed. The internet is a good thing!

* a quote from the Britannica site..."It breeds on dry, stony Arctic tundra and migrates great distances along the coasts of all continents". Notice the "all continents?"

Dude...what?

Seriously, umm... what?

You all talk so loud (and long) can't hear a word of it.

But seriously, I am a card carrying member of the Sierra Club and National Wildlife Federation...but...ummm...never mind, it's not about me.

Sure, think global, act local...do what you can to minimize your footprint on the planet, protect our biodiversity for future generations and all that but...ummm...anyhooo...

But no, seriously... what did you think of the 2010 kites/boards/harness/hot spots?

And all in good measure and respect...

BTW Who's showing up at the Superfly Open Snowkite festival in Utah March 2010?

-Laudi

PS... does driving or flying cause more carbon emissions which may or not increase global warming...never mind, sorry I asked...just show up in Utah for a good time for all

I am told that the Sierra Club and Nature Conservancy are trying to distance themsellves from Audubon. Personally I don trust any of them any more.

yea...what he said!